Freight reverse


In many ways, the freight market is a mirror image of the state of the world economy. No wonder that many analysts use the BDI as a kind of barometer that fairly objectively reflects the situation developing at one point or another in the real sectors of the global market.

As noted in the latest prepared by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs review "World Economic Situation and Prospects" in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, world economy will experience a decline of 3.2% in 2020 which is equivalent to 8.5 trillion USD in monetary expression. Thus, the growth of world GDP over the previous 4 years will be canceled out. As noted in the survey 90% of the world economy was under restrictive measures due to COVID-19. According to IMF forecasts the drop in the GDP of industrialized countries in 2020 will be 5% and the total GDP of developing countries in 2020 will decrease by 0.7%. "The forecasts of the World Bank are even more pessimistic according to which the GDP developed countries in 2020 will decrease by 7% and developing countries - by 2.5%. Introduced by most countries the so-called "lockdowns" with production interruption in January - May sharply reduced the demand for sea transportation and also disrupted the logistics chains developed over the years.

According to UNCTAD estimates the volume of world trade in 1st quarter decreased by 5% and the expected decline in the 2nd quarter of 2020 may be 27%. In general this source predicts a drop in world trade in 2020 by an average of 20%. Less pessimistic forecasts cite a fall of 15% which will be restored already in 2021 and will only allow the demand for bulk transport to return to the level of 2019.